Cebu is preparing for a potentially difficult period ahead as PAGASA warns that the current Strong El Niño could intensify into the Very Strong category between September and December 2026 and continue into the first half of 2027.
For Metro Cebu, one of the biggest concerns is water. The Metropolitan Cebu Water District (MCWD) is already working on additional sources and infrastructure as the region prepares for the possibility of lower rainfall and reduced production from some of its existing water sources.
PAGASA Warns El Niño Could Become Very Strong
According to PAGASA, a Strong El Niño is currently active in the Tropical Pacific. Climate models and expert assessments indicate that it could intensify into a Very Strong El Niño during the September-to-December 2026 period.
PAGASA also expects the phenomenon to persist through the first half of 2027.
El Niño generally brings warmer temperatures and below-normal rainfall to much of the Philippines. However, it does not mean that every day will be dry. Localized thunderstorms, weather systems and tropical cyclones can still bring rain even during an El Niño episode.
The bigger concern is the overall reduction in rainfall over an extended period and what that means for water resources.
Central Visayas Has Already Seen Less Rain
The effects are already being monitored in Central Visayas. PAGASA Visayas weather specialist Jhomer Eclarino recently reported significant reductions in rainfall in the region.
Rainfall was reported to have fallen by 89 percent in August, while September also recorded a substantial reduction. PAGASA's outlook for October places rainfall in Central Visayas between below normal and near normal.
These conditions matter because Metro Cebu relies on a combination of groundwater and surface-water sources.
MCWD Is Preparing for a Major Surface-Water Reduction
MCWD is particularly concerned about its surface-water sources, which are more vulnerable to prolonged dry conditions.
The water district currently gets a significant portion of its supply from groundwater, with the rest coming from surface sources. During the expected peak of El Niño, MCWD estimates that its approximately 90 million liters per day of surface-water supply could fall to around 47 million liters per day.
That would represent a potential reduction of about 43 million liters per day.
This is why the water district has been preparing months ahead of the expected peak of the dry conditions.
More Groundwater Sources Are Being Developed
One part of MCWD's response is to increase the amount of groundwater available to the system.
The district has been working on new production wells, rehabilitation of existing wells and additional pumping facilities.
Groundwater is expected to be less immediately vulnerable to El Niño than surface water, although prolonged dry conditions can eventually affect groundwater recharge as well.
This makes diversification important. Rather than depending too heavily on one type of water source, MCWD is looking at several options that can work together.
New Pumping Stations Could Help Move Water Where It Is Needed
MCWD is also preparing new pumping stations to increase the flexibility of the distribution network.
Current plans include eight new pumping stations expected to begin operating before the end of 2026, with an estimated combined production of about 5.8 million liters per day.
Additional pumping stations are also awaiting power connections and are expected to contribute further supply.
Beyond producing water, booster pumps can help MCWD move available water between parts of Metro Cebu depending on where supply is available and where demand is highest.
Desalinated Water Is Becoming Part of Cebu's Water Strategy
Another important part of the plan is desalination.
MCWD has already begun receiving desalinated water from the Isla Mactan Cordova Corporation facility. The initial supply started at 5 million liters per day, with the arrangement designed to increase toward a total commitment of 20 million liters per day.
The facility is expected to provide an additional climate-resilient source for Metro Cebu and eventually serve close to 30,000 households when fully operational.
MCWD is also looking at additional desalinated water from other facilities as part of its preparations for the months ahead.
Desalination is more expensive than conventional water sources, but it provides another option when rainfall and surface-water availability become less reliable.
MCWD Is Preparing About 40.4 Million Liters of Additional Supply
MCWD's different measures are designed to collectively offset much of the potential decline in surface-water production.
Current preparations are expected to provide around 40.4 million liters per day of additional supply through a combination of desalination, additional bulk water, groundwater production, pumping stations and reductions in non-revenue water.
That figure is close to, but still slightly below, the estimated 43-million-liter-per-day surface-water reduction that could occur during the peak of El Niño.
This means the situation will still require careful management if the strongest effects of El Niño materialize.
Some Areas Could Experience Reduced Water Availability
MCWD has warned that some areas of Metro Cebu could experience reduced water availability if the dry conditions become more severe.
The southern portion of Metro Cebu is expected to be among the areas that could be more affected by declining surface water.
Scheduled rationing may become necessary if supply conditions deteriorate. MCWD has said consumers would be informed ahead of changes to water schedules.
The district is also studying ways to move water through its pipeline network rather than relying entirely on water tankers in areas where pressure becomes a problem.
What Cebu Residents Can Do Now
While MCWD works on additional supply, water conservation remains an important part of preparing for the months ahead.
Households can reduce unnecessary water use by fixing leaks, avoiding excessive outdoor water consumption, reusing water where appropriate and making sure taps are not left running.
Small reductions in household consumption can become significant when multiplied across thousands of homes and businesses.
Residents should also pay attention to official MCWD announcements, particularly if local supply schedules change during the peak of the dry period.
Cebu Is Preparing Before the Hardest Months Arrive
The biggest takeaway from the current preparations is that Cebu is not waiting for the strongest effects of El Niño before acting.
MCWD has been working on additional wells, pumping stations, bulk-water arrangements and desalination as the region prepares for the possibility of a prolonged period of below- normal rainfall.
Whether every measure will be needed will depend on how the El Niño develops and how much rainfall Cebu receives over the coming months.
But with PAGASA expecting the current Strong El Niño to potentially become Very Strong and continue into the first half of 2027, water security is becoming an increasingly important issue for Metro Cebu.
For residents, the coming months will be a reminder that reliable water supply depends not only on rainfall, but also on infrastructure, planning, conservation and finding new sources before existing ones come under greater pressure.
Photo credit to Francis Matahum / Wikimedia Commons — Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-SA 4.0).